Title:
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Short-term fire front spread prediction using inverse modelling and airborne infrared images
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Author:
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Rios Rubiras, Oriol; Pastor Ferrer, Elsa; Valero Pérez, Mario Miguel; Planas Cuchi, Eulàlia
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Other authors:
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Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Química; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. CERTEC - Centre d'Estudis del Risc Tecnològic |
Abstract:
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A wildfire forecasting tool capable of estimating the fire perimeter position sufficiently in advance of the actual fire arrival will assist firefighting operations and optimise available resources. However, owing to limited knowledge of fire event characteristics (e.g. fuel distribution and characteristics, weather variability) and the short time available to deliver a forecast, most of the current models only provide a rough approximation of the forthcoming fire positions and dynamics. The problem can be tackled by coupling data assimilation and inverse modelling techniques. We present an inverse modelling-based algorithm that uses infrared airborne images to forecast short-term wildfire dynamics with a positive lead time. The algorithm is applied to two real-scale mallee-heath shrubland fire experiments, of 9 and 25 ha, successfully forecasting the fire perimeter shape and position in the short term. Forecast dependency on the assimilation windows is explored to prepare the system to meet real scenario constraints. It is envisaged the system will be applied at larger time and space scales. |
Abstract:
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Peer Reviewed |
Subject(s):
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-Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria química::Impacte ambiental -Wildfire forecasting -data assimilation -fire behaviour -Rothermel model -Incendis forestals -- Prevenció i control -Incendis forestals -- Extinció -- Mesures de seguretat |
Rights:
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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ |
Document type:
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Article - Submitted version Article |
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