Title:
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Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El
Nino: Lessons learned
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Author:
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Martinez, Pamela P.; Reiner Jr., Robert C.; Cash, Benjamin A.; Rodó, Xavier; Shahjahan Mondal, Mohammad; Roy, Manojit; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Sayeeda; King, Aaron A.; Pascual, Mercedes
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Abstract:
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A substantial body of work supports a teleconnection between the
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera incidence in
Bangladesh. In particular, high positive anomalies during the
winter (Dec-Feb) in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the
tropical Pacific have been shown to exacerbate the seasonal
outbreak of cholera following the monsoons from August to
November. Climate studies have indicated a role of regional
precipitation over Bangladesh in mediating this long-distance
effect. Motivated by this previous evidence, we took advantage
of the strong 2015-2016 El Nino event to evaluate the
predictability of cholera dynamics for the city in recent times
based on two transmission models that incorporate SST anomalies
and are fitted to the earlier surveillance records starting in
1995. We implemented a mechanistic temporal model that
incorporates both epidemiological processes and the effect of
ENSO, as well as a previously published statistical model that
resolves space at the level of districts (thanas). Prediction
accuracy was evaluated with "out-of-fit" data from the same
surveillance efforts (post 2008 and 2010 for the two models
respectively), by comparing the total number of cholera cases
observed for the season to those predicted by model simulations
eight to twelve months ahead, starting in January each year.
Although forecasts were accurate for the low cholera risk
observed for the years preceding the 2015-2016 El Nino, the
models also predicted a high probability of observing a large
outbreak in fall 2016. Observed cholera cases up to Oct 2016 did
not show evidence of an anomalous season. We discuss these
predictions in the context of regional and local climate
conditions, which show that despite positive regional rainfall
anomalies, rainfall and inundation in Dhaka remained low.
Possible explanations for these patterns are given together with
future implications for cholera dynamics and directions to
improve their prediction for the city. |
Subject(s):
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-Còlera -Bangla Desh -Cholera -Bangladesh |
Rights:
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cc by (c) Martinez et al., 2017
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/ |
Document type:
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Article Article - Published version |
Published by:
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
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