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Dynamic Criteria: a Longitudinal Analysis of Professional Basketball Players" Outcomes
García-Izquierdo, A.L.; Ramos-Villagrasa, P.J.; Navarro Cid, José
Universitat de Barcelona
This paper describes the fluctuations of temporal criteria dynamics in the context of professional sport. Specifically, we try to verify the underlying deterministic patterns in the outcomes of professional basketball players. We use a longitudinal approach based on the analysis of the outcomes of 94 basketball players over ten years, covering practically players" entire career development. Time series were analyzed with techniques derived from nonlinear dynamical systems theory. These techniques analyze the underlying patterns in outcomes without previous shape assumptions (linear or nonlinear). These techniques are capable of detecting an intermediate situation between randomness and determinism, called chaos. So they are very useful for the study of dynamic criteria in organizations. We have found most players (88.30%) have a deterministic pattern in their outcomes, and most cases are chaotic (81.92%). Players with chaotic patterns have higher outcomes than players with linear patterns. Moreover, players with power forward and center positions achieve better results than other players. The high number of chaotic patterns found suggests caution when appraising individual outcomes, when coaches try to find the appropriate combination of players to design a competitive team, and other personnel decisions. Management efforts must be made to assume this uncertainty.
Caos (Teoria de sistemes)
Teories no lineals
Mètode longitudinal
Chaotic behavior in systems
Nonlinear theories
Longitudinal method
(c) The Spanish Journal of Psychology, 2012
Universidad Complutense de Madrid

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