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Probabilistic estimation of annual lost economic production due to premature deaths because of earthquakes
Salgado Gálvez, Mario Andrés; Bernal Granados, Gabriel Andres; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Carreño Tibaduiza, Martha Liliana; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Civil i Ambiental; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. RMEE - Grup de Resistència de Materials i Estructures a l'Enginyeria
This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis Group in Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal on 2016, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/10807039.2015.1095072
A methodology to estimate, in a probabilistic way, the annual cost to society of premature deaths because of earthquakes is proposed in this article. The methodology makes use of results obtained by means of prospective and probabilistic seismic risk assessments where expected deaths caused by the collapse of buildings are obtained. Those results, combined with demographic and macroeconomic indicators such as the age distribution, life expectancy at birth, and per capita gross domestic product, are used to estimate the cost to society in terms of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes. The proposed methodology does not attempt to estimate nor assign a cost to human lives at any stage, but the one associated to lost productivity at the societal level. One of the descriptors of the methodology is part of the components of the disability adjusted life year, a widely used metric in the public health field that estimates the burden of diseases based mostly on historical data. As an example, the methodology is applied to Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, finding that the cost of lost productivity due to premature mortality because of earthquakes has a similar order of magnitude to the direct physical losses in the public and private building stock calculated in a previous probabilistic seismic risk assessment.
Peer Reviewed
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Geotècnia::Sismologia
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Aspectes econòmics
Earthquakes--Economic aspects
probabilistic seismic risk assessment
average annual deaths
earthquake casualties
disability adjusted life year
Terratrèmols -- Danys
info:eu-repo/semantics/submittedVersion
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