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Título:
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Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time
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Autor/a:
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Carabotta, Laura; Claeys, Peter Gunther
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Otros autores:
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Universitat de Barcelona |
Abstract:
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Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model. |
Materia(s):
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-Macroeconomia -Dèficit públic -Previsió econòmica -Cicles econòmics -Macroeconomics -Budget dèficits -Economic forecasting -Business cycles |
Derechos:
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cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Carabotta et al., 2015
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ |
Tipo de documento:
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Documento de trabajo |
Editor:
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Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa
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