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Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time
Carabotta, Laura; Claeys, Peter Gunther
Universitat de Barcelona
Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.
Macroeconomia
Dèficit públic
Previsió econòmica
Cicles econòmics
Macroeconomics
Budget dèficits
Economic forecasting
Business cycles
cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Carabotta et al., 2015
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
Documento de trabajo
Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa
         

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