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Modelling urban growth: a prospective population, housing and job location model
Marmolejo Duarte, Carlos Ramiro; Ruiz Lineros, Manuel A.; Cerdà Troncoso, Jorge Francisco; Roca Cladera, Josep; Masip Tresserra, Jaume
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Construccions Arquitectòniques I; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. CPSV - Centre de Política de Sòl i Valoracions
Demographic projections have become in a useful tool in the planning of urban land provision. In the context of a more comprehensive research orientated towards the construction of a system to evaluate the impact of new infrastructure and urban projects on the efficiency of metropolis (i.e. in terms of mobility and environmental sustainability) a prospective urban growth model has been built-in. In this paper such a model is exposed. The model simulates the natural movement of population across the time and space, at the time that allows for migration according to the capacity of labor market to absorb new working migrants. The outputs suggest the total population, employment and housing demand in a spatial-temporal framework. Results for Catalonia and the Metropolitan Region of Barcelona illustrate the use of the model.
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Urbanisme
Cities and towns--Growth
Labor market
Demographic projections
Urban growth model
Labor market
Mercat de treball

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