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Reliability analysis of beaches as defenses against storm impacts under a climate change scenario
Sánchez-Arcilla Conejo, Agustín; Gómez Martínez, Marta; Gracia Garcia, Vicente; Gironella Cobos, Xavier; García León, Manuel
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament d'Enginyeria Hidràulica, Marítima i Ambiental; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. LIM/UPC - Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima
An analysis of the probability of failure of beaches along the Catalan coast (Northwestern Mediterranean) is presented. The failure condition is defined when waves are able to overtop the beach and reach the backshore. The analysis is performed by means of a verification equation where most of the related variables are assumed to be stochastic. The probability of failure of beaches is calculated by means of MonteCarlo simulations for present conditions and different climate change scenarios. At present 14% of the Catalan beaches fail the proposed protection function against storms. Under a high-end climate change projection (A1FI) 21% of beaches will fail.
Peer Reviewed
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria civil::Enginyeria hidràulica, marítima i sanitària::Ports i costes
Beach flooding
MonteCarlo simulations
Climate change
Platges -- Erosió -- Catalunya

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