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Fuzzy models: Easier to understand and an easier way to handle uncertainties in climate change research
Gay García, Carlos; Sánchez Meneses, Oscar; Martínez-López, Benjamín; Nebot Castells, M. Àngela; Estrada, Francisco
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Ciències de la Computació; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. SOCO - Soft Computing
Greenhouse gas emission scenarios (through 2100) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change when converted to concentrations and atmospheric temperatures through the use of climate models result in a wide range of concentrations and temperatures with a rather simple interpretation: the higher the emissions the higher the concentrations and temperatures. Therefore the uncertainty in the projected temperature due to the uncertainty in the emissions is large. Linguistic rules are obtained through the use of linear emission scenarios and the Magicc model. These rules describe the relations between the concentrations (input) and the temperature increase for the year 2100 (output) and are used to build a fuzzy model. Another model is presented that includes, as a second source of uncertainty in input, the climate sensitivity to explore its effects on the temperature. Models are attractive because their simplicity and capability to integrate the uncertainties to the input and the output.
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Aplicacions de la informàtica
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic
Climatic changes -- Mathematical models
Fuzzy inference models
Greenhouse gases future scenarios
Global climate change
Canvis climàtics -- Models matemàtics

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