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 Title: Extended version. Occurrence of solar flares viewed with GPS: statistics and fractal nature Monte Moreno, Enrique; Hernández Pajares, Manuel Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Teoria del Senyal i Comunicacions; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada IV; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. VEU - Grup de Tractament de la Parla; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. IonSAT - Grup de determinació Ionosfèrica i navegació per SAtèl·lit i sistemes Terrestres Extended version of the paper In this paper we describe the statistical properties of the EUV solar flux sudden variation. The solar flux variation is modeled as a time series characterized by the subsolar VTEC (Vertical Total Electron Content) double-difference in time, computed with dual frequency GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) measurements in the daylight hemisphere. By assuming a sudden overionization pattern of solar origin, during the last solar cycle, we propose a model that explains it's characteristics, and the forecasting limitations. The two defining characteristics of this time series, is an extreme variability (i.e.\ in a solar cycle one can find events at $400 \sigma$ from the mean value) and a temporal correlation that is independent of the time scale. We give a characterization of a model that explains the empirical results, and properties such as, a) the persistence and presence of bursts of solar flares, b) their long tail peak values of the solar flux variation. We show that the solar flux variation time series can be characterized by a fractional Brownian model for the long term dependence, and a powerlaw distribution for the extreme values that appear in the time series. Peer Reviewed Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Enginyeria de la telecomunicació::Radiocomunicació i exploració electromagnètica::TeledeteccióÀrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Arquitectura de computadors::Arquitectures paral·lelesParallel programming (Computer science)Global Positioning SystemSolar FlaresFractalGlobal Possioning SystemGPSstatisticsMandelbrotProgramació en paral·lel (Informàtica)Sistema de posicionament global Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/ Article - DraftReport

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