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Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict
Ciccone, Antonio
Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may, for example, lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following negative rainfall shocks when conflict is most probable following years with exceptionally high rainfall levels.
Transitory shocks, mean reversion, rainfall, conflict
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