Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?

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RECERCAT Home > Universitat de Barcelona > UB Economics (ERE) > UB Economics – Working Papers [ERE] > View document

To access the full text documents, please follow this link: http://hdl.handle.net/2445/34387

dc.contributor	Universitat de Barcelona
dc.contributor.author	Brückner, Markus
dc.date	2013-04-02T09:37:06Z
dc.date	2013-04-02T09:37:06Z
dc.date	2009
dc.date	2013-04-02T09:37:06Z
dc.identifier.citation	1136-8365
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/2445/34387
dc.format	28 p.
dc.format	application/pdf
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	Universitat de Barcelona. Facultat d'Economia i Empresa
dc.relation	Reproducció del document publicat a: http://www.ere.ub.es/dtreball/E09211.rdf/view
dc.relation	Documents de treball (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa. Espai de Recerca en Economia), 2009, E09/211
dc.relation	[WP E-Eco09/211]
dc.rights	cc-by-nc-nd, (c) Brückner, 2009
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
dc.subject	Política demogràfica
dc.subject	Política social
dc.subject	Causalitat
dc.subject	Conflictes socials
dc.subject	Gestió de conflictes
dc.subject	Population policy
dc.subject	Social policy
dc.subject	Causation
dc.subject	Social conflict
dc.subject	Conflict management
dc.title	Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is There A Causal Link?
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
dc.description.abstract	[spa] La estimación del impacto del tamaño de la populación sobre la probabilidad de conflicto civil se complica por el sesgo de endogeneidad y las variables omitidas. Este artículo trata el problema de causalidad utilizando métodos de variables instrumentales en un panel de 37 países del África Sub-sahariana en el período 1981-2004. Encontramos que un aumento de la población en un 1% aumenta la probabilidad de conflicto civil por un 5.2%.
dc.description.abstract	[eng] Does an expansion of the population size expose nation states to a higher risk of suffering from civil conflict? Obtaining empirical evidence for a causal relationship is difficult due to reverse effects and omitted variable bias. This paper addresses causality issues by using randomly occurring drought as an instrumental variable to generate exogenous variation in population size for a panel of 37 Sub-Saharan countries over the period 1981- 2004. Instrumental variable estimates yield that a one percentage point increase in population size raises the risk of civil conflict by over 5.2 percentage points.

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