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Bayesian trend analysis for daily rainfall series of Barcelona
Ortego Martínez, María Isabel; Gibergans Baguena, José; Tolosana Delgado, Raimon; Egozcue Rubí, Juan José; Llasat Botija, Maria Carmen
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada III; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. NRG - Riscos Naturals i Geoestadística
A Point-Over-Threshold approach using a reparameterization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) has been used to assess changes in the daily rainfall Barcelona series (1854–2006). A Bayesian approach, considering the suitable scale and physical features of the phenomenon, has been used to look for these alterations. Two different models have been assessed: existence of abrupt changes in the new GPD parameters due to modifications of the observatory locations and trends in these GPD parameters, pointing to a climate change scenario.
Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències
Bayesian statistical decision theory
Rain and rainfall--Measurement
Probability and statistics
Hydrology
Hidrologia
Precipitacions (Meteorologia) -- Mesurament -- Espanya
Probabilitats
Decisió, Teoria de la
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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