Title:
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Fiscal impact of future earthquakes and country's economic resilience evaluation using the disaster deficit index
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Author:
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Cardona, Omar. D.; Ordaz Schroder, Mario Gustavo; Marulanda, Mabel C.; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro
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Other authors:
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Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Resistència de Materials i Estructures a l'Enginyeria; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. (MC)2 - Grup de Mecànica Computacional en Medis Continus |
Abstract:
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The Disaster Deficit Index (DDI) measures disaster country risk from a macroeconomic and financial perspective, according to possible future catastrophic events. The DDI captures the relationship between the
demand for contingent resources to cover the maximum probable losses and the public sector’s economic resilience; that is, the availability of internal and external funds for restoring affected inventories. For
calculating potential losses, the model follows the insurance industry in establishing a probable loss, based on
the critical impacts during a given period of exposure, and for the economic resilience the model computes the country’s financial ability to cope with the situation taking into account: the insurance and reinsurance
payments; the reserve funds for disasters; the funds that may be received as aid and donations; the possible value of new taxes; the margin for budgetary reallocations; the feasible value of external credit; and the internal credit the country may obtain. Access to these resources has limitations and costs that must be taken into
account as feasible values according to the macroeconomic and financial conditions. This paper presents the model of DDI and the results for fourteen countries of the Americas to design appropriate risk evaluation tools to guide the governmental decision making. |
Abstract:
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Peer Reviewed |
Subject(s):
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-Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Desenvolupament humà::Risc i vulnerabilitat -Risk assessment--Econometric models -Disaster deficit -contingent liabilities -fiscal sustainability -seismic vulnerability -Avaluació del risc -Condicions econòmiques |
Rights:
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Document type:
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Article - Published version Conference Object |
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