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Rain and the democratic window of opportunity
Brückner, Markus; Ciccone, Antonio
Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa
According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.
Macroeconomics and International Economics
transitory economic shocks
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