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<title>RECERCAT - Documents de treball de la Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP)</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/12898</link>
<description>www.pcb.ub.edu/xreap/web/home.php</description>
<pubDate>Fri, 18 May 2012 09:42:11 GMT</pubDate>
<dc:date>2012-05-18T09:42:11Z</dc:date>
<image>
<title>The Channel Image</title>
<url xmlns="http://apache.org/cocoon/i18n/2.1">http://www.recercat.cat:80/bitstream/id/26457/</url>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/12898</link>
</image>
<item>
<title>Changes in wage structure in Mexico going beyond the mean: An analysis of differences in distribution, 1987-2008</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/195760</link>
<description>Changes in wage structure in Mexico going beyond the mean: An analysis of differences in distribution, 1987-2008
Tello, Claudia; Ramos Lobo, Raúl; Artís Ortuño, Manuel
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between wage inequality, employment structure, and returns to education in urban areas of Mexico during the past two decades (1987-2008). Applying Melly’s (2005) quantile regression based decomposition, we find that changes in wage inequality have been driven mainly by variations in educational wage premia. Additionally, we find that changes in employment structure, including occupation and firm size, have played a vital role. This evidence seems to suggest that the changes in wage inequality in urban Mexico cannot be interpreted in terms of a skill-biased change, but rather they are the result of an increasing demand for skills during that period.
</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/195760</guid>
<dc:date>2012-05-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Quantitative analysis of image factors in a cultural heritage tourist destination</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/182683</link>
<description>Quantitative analysis of image factors in a cultural heritage tourist destination
Bové-Sans, Miquel-Àngel; Laguado- Ramírez, Raquel
The tourism consumer’s purchase decision process is, to a great extent, conditioned by the image the tourist has of the different destinations that make up his or her choice set. In a highly competitive international tourist market, those responsible for destinations’ promotion and development policies seek differentiation strategies so that they may position the destinations in the most suitable market segments for their product in order to improve their attractiveness to visitors and increase or consolidate the economic benefits that tourism activity generates in their territory. To this end, the main objective we set ourselves in this paper is the empirical analysis of the factors that determine the image formation of Tarragona city as a cultural heritage destination. Without a doubt, UNESCO’s declaration of Tarragona’s artistic and monumental legacies as World Heritage site in the year 2000 meant important international recognition of the quality of the cultural and patrimonial elements offered by the city to the visitors who choose it as a tourist destination. It also represents a strategic opportunity to boost the city’s promotion of tourism and its consolidation as a unique destination given its cultural and patrimonial characteristics. Our work is based on the use of structured and unstructured techniques to identify the factors that determine Tarragona’s tourist destination image and that have a decisive influence on visitors’ process of choice of destination. In addition to being able to ascertain Tarragona’s global tourist image, we consider that the heterogeneity of its visitors requires a more detailed study that enables us to segment visitor typology. We consider that the information provided by these results may prove of great interest to those responsible for local tourism policy, both when designing products and when promoting the destination.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Apr 2012 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/182683</guid>
<dc:date>2012-04-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/182670</link>
<description>Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance
D’Amico, Guglielmo; Guillén, Montserrat; Manca, Raimondo; 
In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2012 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/182670</guid>
<dc:date>2012-03-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Driving competition in local gasoline markets</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/182666</link>
<description>Driving competition in local gasoline markets
Perdiguero, Jordi; Borrell, Joan-Ramon
Relevant market definition is still a key element of economic analysis of competition in the gasoline market. It is particularly difficult to handle when competition is local and market power is geographically constrained like is the case in the gasoline market. We analyse how the application of the hypothetical monopolist or Small but Significant Non-Transitory Increase in Prices (SSNIP) test performs for defining isochrones using only information on prices and distance among competitors. We conclude that geographic information systems can be very successfully used to define more precisely relevant geographic market in the gasoline retailing. The application to the Spanish gasoline market concludes that geographic relevant market is composed by 5-6 minutes of travel time. Localised market power should be taken into account when analysing the adverse effects of mergers and entry regulations in gasoline retailing. Only drawing small enough isochrones will drive competition in local markets because it is just close rivals that compete effectively with each other.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2012 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/182666</guid>
<dc:date>2012-03-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179582</link>
<description>Solvency Capital estimation and Risk Measures
Ferri Vidal, Antoni; Guillén, Montserrat; Bermúdez, Lluís
This paper examines why a financial entity’s solvency capital estimation might be  underestimated if the total amount required is obtained directly from a risk measurement. Using Monte Carlo simulation we show that, in some instances, a common risk measure such as Value-at-Risk is not subadditive when certain dependence structures are considered. Higher risk evaluations are obtained for independence between random variables than those obtained in the case of comonotonicity. The paper stresses, therefore, the relationship between dependence structures and capital estimation.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179582</guid>
<dc:date>2012-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>How to use the standard model with own data?</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179579</link>
<description>How to use the standard model with own data?
Bermúdez, Lluís; Guillén, Montserrat; Ferri Vidal, Antoni
In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the   solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179579</guid>
<dc:date>2012-02-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Evaluating antitrust leniency programs</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179577</link>
<description>Evaluating antitrust leniency programs
Borrell, Joan Ramón; Jiménez, Juan Luís; García, Carmen
This paper identifies and then quantifies econometrically the impact of leniency programs on the perception of the effectiveness of antitrust policies using country level panel data for a 10-year span. Leniency programs have been introduced gradually in antitrust legislation across the globe to fight more effectively against cartels. We use the dynamics of the diffusion of such policy innovation across countries and over time to evaluate the impact of the program. We find that leniency programs have had a significant impact on the perception among the business community of the effectiveness of each country‟s antitrust policy. Leniency programs have become weapons of mass dissuasion in the hands of antitrust enforcers against the more damaging forms of explicit collusion among rival firms in the market place.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179577</guid>
<dc:date>2012-01-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179210</link>
<description>Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?
González Val, Rafael; Olmo, Jose
This article analyzes empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we implement a threshold nonlinearity test that extends standard linear growth regression models to a dataset on urban, climatological and macroeconomic variables on 1,175 U.S. cities. Our analysis reveals the existence of increasing returns when per-capita income levels are beyond $19; 264. Despite this, income growth is mostly explained by social and locational fundamentals. Population growth also exhibits two distinct equilibria determined by a threshold value of 116,300 inhabitants beyond which city population grows at a higher rate. Income and population growth do not go hand in hand, implying an optimal level of population beyond which income growth stagnates or deteriorates
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179210</guid>
<dc:date>2011-12-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>The determinants of YIc's R&amp;D activity</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179209</link>
<description>The determinants of YIc's R&amp;D activity
García, José, 1963-; Pellegrino, Gabriele; Vivarelli, Marco
This paper examines the determinants of young innovative companies’ (YICs) R&amp;D activities taking into account the autoregressive nature of innovation. Using a large longitudinal dataset comprising Spanish manufacturing firms over the period 1990-2008, we find that previous R&amp;D experience is a fundamental determinant for mature and young firms, albeit to a smaller extent in the case of the YICs, suggesting that their innovation behaviour is less persistent and more erratic. Moreover, our results suggest that firm and market characteristics play a distinct role in boosting the innovation activity of firms of different age. In particular, while market concentration and the degree of product diversification are found to be important in boosting R&amp;D activities in the sub-sample of mature firms only, YICs’ spending on R&amp;D appears to be more sensitive to demand-pull variables, suggesting the presence of credit constraints. These results have been obtained using a recently proposed dynamic type-2 tobit estimator, which accounts for individual effects and efficiently handles the initial conditions problem.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179209</guid>
<dc:date>2011-12-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>The Innovation and Imitation Dichotomy in Spanish firms: do absorptive capacity and the technological frontier matter?</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179208</link>
<description>The Innovation and Imitation Dichotomy in Spanish firms: do absorptive capacity and the technological frontier matter?
Gombau, Verònica; Segarra Blasco, Agustí, 1958-
This paper analyses whether a firm’s absorptive capacity and its distance from the technological frontier affect the choice between innovation and imitation in innovative Spanish firms. From an extensive survey of 5,575 firms during the 2004-2009 period, we found two significant results. With regard to the role of absorptive capacity, the empirical evidence shows that when innovative firms have difficulties in accessing external information and hire skilled workers, their innovative capacity is reduced. Meanwhile, with regard to distance from the technological frontier, the firms that reduce this gap manage to increase their innovative capacity at the expense of imitation. To summarise, when we studied firms’ absorptive capacity and their relative position to the technological frontier in tandem, we found that the two factors directly affected firms' ability to innovate or imitate.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179208</guid>
<dc:date>2011-12-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Macroeconomics of extensive margins: a simple model</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179091</link>
<description>Macroeconomics of extensive margins: a simple model
Arespa, Marta
How do monopolistically competitive industries react to shocks in the context of a New Keynesian macro model? I bridge macroeconomics and trade theory by considering market dynamics. I use an analytically tractable closed-economy model with endogenous entry of firms and show the implications of markets structure for the transmission of real shocks on aggregate variables and welfare. Shock sources become crucial for the results: traditional productivity shocks cause an extensive effect on production; shocks on innovation cause an intensive impact. More patient populations bring the economy to a richer market, although it cushions the extensive effect after an innovation shock.
</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/179091</guid>
<dc:date>2011-11-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Does grade retention affect achievement? Some evidence from PISA</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/172874</link>
<description>Does grade retention affect achievement? Some evidence from PISA
Garcia-Pérez, J. Ignacio; Hidalgo-Hidalgo, Marisa; Robles-Zurita, José Antonio
Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this paper, we use PISA 2009 data for Spain to measure the effect of grade retention on students&#146; achievement. One important problem when analyzing this question is that school outcomes and the propensity to repeat a grade are likely to be determined simultaneously. We address this problem by estimating a Switching Regression Model. We &#133;find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confi&#133;rm the importance of endogenous selection, which makes observed differences between repeaters and non-repeaters appear 14.6% lower than they actually are. The effect on PISA scores of repeating is much smaller (-10% of non-repeaters&#146; average) than the counterfactual reduction that non-repeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (-24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade of secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, much larger.
</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/172874</guid>
<dc:date>2011-11-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>R&amp;D cooperation between Spanish firms and scientific partners: what is the role of tertiary education?</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/172869</link>
<description>R&amp;D cooperation between Spanish firms and scientific partners: what is the role of tertiary education?
Segarra Blasco, Agustí, 1958-
This paper explores the factors that determine firm’s R&amp;D cooperation with different partners, paying special attention on the role of tertiary education (degree and PhDs level) in facilitating the connection between the firms and the to scientific bodies (technology centres, public research centres and universities). Here, we attempt to answer two questions. First, are innovative firms that carry out internal and external R&amp;D activities more likely to cooperate on R&amp;D projects with other partners? Second, do Spanish innovative firms with a high participation of researchers with degrees or PhDs tend to cooperate more with scientific partners? To answer both questions we apply a three-dimensional approach on a firm level Panel Data with a sample of 4.998 manufacturing and services Spanish firms. First, we run a complementary test between external R&amp;D acquisition and skilled research workers and find that firms which carry out external R&amp;D activities obtain a greater return on R&amp;D cooperation when they have skilled workers in R&amp;D, especially in high-tech manufactures and KIS services. Second, we carry out a 2-step tobit model to estimate, in the first stage, the determinants that explain whether Spanish innovative firms cooperate or not; and in the second stage the factors that affect the choice of partners. And third, we apply an ordered probit model to test the marginal effects of explanatory variables on the different partners. Here we contrast some of the most interesting empirical hypotheses of previous studies, and which emphasize the role of employees with degrees and PhDs in facilitating cooperative R&amp;D between firms and scientific partners.
</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/172869</guid>
<dc:date>2011-11-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>A New open economy macroeconomic model with endogenous portfolio diversification and firms entry</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/171817</link>
<description>A New open economy macroeconomic model with endogenous portfolio diversification and firms entry
Arespa, Marta
This paper provides a new benchmark for the analysis of the international diversi&#133;cation puzzle in a tractable new open economy macroeconomic model. Building on Cole and Obstfeld (1991) and Heathcote and Perri (2009), this model speci&#133;es an equilibrium model of perfect risk sharing in incomplete markets, with endogenous portfolios and number of varieties. Equity home bias may not be a puzzle but a perfectly optimal allocation for hedging risk. In contrast to previous work, the model shows that: (i) optimal international portfolio diversi&#133;cation is driven by home bias in capital goods, independently of home bias in consumption, and by the share of income accruing to labour. The model explains reasonably well the recent patterns of portfolio allocations in developed economies; and (ii) optimal portfolio shares are independent of market dynamics.
</description>
<pubDate>Sat, 01 Oct 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/171817</guid>
<dc:date>2011-10-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>The impact of agglomeration effects and accessibility on wages</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/171816</link>
<description>The impact of agglomeration effects and accessibility on wages
Matas i Prat, Anna; Raymond Bara, José Luís; Roig Sabaté, José Luis
This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the effects of agglomeration and road accessibility on productivity of firms by looking at the case of Spain. We approach productivity indirectly by using individual wages allocated at the NUTS III level. We use a repeated cross-section of individual micro-data for the years 1995, 2002 and 2006. The availability of interprovincial travel time data for each of the three years allows controlling for transport improvements over the period by using a market potential variable. Additionally, agglomeration is approached by employment density and we control for localization economies, human capital externalities and a large set of individual and workplace characteristics. Estimating by instrumental variables, our results show a positive and significant effect of market accessibility on wages and non linear effect for employment density.
</description>
<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/171816</guid>
<dc:date>2011-11-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Evaluation of subsidies programs to sell green cars: Impact on prices, quantities and efficiency</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/171792</link>
<description>Evaluation of subsidies programs to sell green cars: Impact on prices, quantities and efficiency
Jiménez, Juan Luí­s; Perdiguero, Jordi; Garcí­a, Carmen
During the recent period of economic crisis, many countries have introduced scrappage schemes to boost the sale and production of vehicles, particularly of vehicles designed to pollute less. In this paper, we analyze the impact of a particular scheme in Spain (Plan2000E) on vehicle prices and sales figures as well as on the reduction of polluting emissions from vehicles on the road. We considered the introduction of this scheme an exogenous policy change and because we could distinguish a control group (non-subsidized vehicles) and a treatment group (subsidized vehicles), before and after the introduction of the Plan, we were able to carry out our analysis as a quasi-natural experiment. Our study reveals that manufacturers increased vehicle prices by the same amount they were granted through the Plan (1,000 â&#130;¬). In terms of sales, econometric estimations revealed an increase of almost 5% as a result of the implementation of the Plan. With regard to environmental efficiency, we compared the costs (inverted quantity of money) and the benefits of the program (reductions in polluting emissions and additional fiscal revenues) and found that the Plan would only be beneficial if it boosted demand by at least 30%.
</description>
<pubDate>Sat, 01 Oct 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/171792</guid>
<dc:date>2011-10-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/171085</link>
<description>A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance
Guillén, Montserrat; Pérez Marín, Ana María; Alcañiz, Manuela
This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance).  Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.
</description>
<pubDate>Sat, 01 Oct 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/171085</guid>
<dc:date>2011-10-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/169680</link>
<description>A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation
Bermúdez, Lluis; Ferri, Antoni; Guillén, Montserrat
This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.
</description>
<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/169680</guid>
<dc:date>2011-09-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990s</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/168513</link>
<description>Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990s
Varela-Irimia, Xosé-Luís
This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product e¤ects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the&#13;
non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated&#13;
price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market.
</description>
<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/168513</guid>
<dc:date>2011-08-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152176</link>
<description>Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance
Bermúdez, Lluís; Karlis, Dimitris
In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.
</description>
<pubDate>Fri, 01 Jul 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152176</guid>
<dc:date>2011-07-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152093</link>
<description>What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion
Moreno Torres, Ivan
This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152093</guid>
<dc:date>2011-05-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>The link between public support and private R&amp;D effort: What is the optimal subsidy?</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152092</link>
<description>The link between public support and private R&amp;D effort: What is the optimal subsidy?
Duch Brown, Néstor; García Quevedo, José, 1963-; Montolio, Daniel
The effectiveness of R&amp;D subsidies can vary substantially depending on their characteristics. Specifically, the amount and intensity of such subsidies are crucial issues in the design of public schemes supporting private R&amp;D. Public agencies determine the intensities of R&amp;D subsidies for firms in line with their eligibility criteria, although assessing the effects of R&amp;D projects accurately is far from straightforward. The main aim of this paper is to examine whether there is an optimal intensity for R&amp;D subsidies through an analysis of their impact on private R&amp;D effort. We examine the decisions of a public agency to grant subsidies taking into account not only the characteristics of the firms but also, as few previous studies have done to date, those of the R&amp;D projects. In determining the optimal subsidy we use both parametric and nonparametric techniques. The results show a non-linear relationship between the percentage of subsidy received and the firms’ R&amp;D effort. These results have implications for technology policy, particularly for the design of R&amp;D subsidies that ensure enhanced effectiveness.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152092</guid>
<dc:date>2011-06-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Singling out individual inventors from patent data</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152090</link>
<description>Singling out individual inventors from patent data
Miguélez, Ernest; Gómez, Ismael
An increasing number of studies have sprung up in recent years seeking to identify individual inventors from patent data. Different heuristics have been suggested to use their names and other information disclosed in patent documents in order to find out “who is who” in patents. This paper contributes to this literature by setting forth a methodology to identify them using patents applied to the European Patent Office (EPO hereafter). As in the large part of this literature, we basically follow a three-steps procedure: (1) the parsing stage, aimed at reducing the noise in the inventor’s name and other fields of the patent; (2) the matching stage, where name matching algorithms are used to group possible similar names; (3) the filtering stage, where additional information and different scoring schemes are used to filter out these potential same inventors. The paper includes some figures resulting of applying the algorithms to the set of European inventors applying to the EPO for a large period of time.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152090</guid>
<dc:date>2011-05-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152089</link>
<description>Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard
Moreno Torres, Ivan
This paper examines competition between generic and brand-name drugs in the regulated Spanish pharmaceutical market. A nested logit demand model is specified for the three most consumed therapeutic subgroups in Spain: statins (anticholesterol), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (antidepressants) and proton pump inhibitors (antiulcers). The model is estimated with instrumental variables from a panel of monthly prescription data from 1999 to 2005. The dataset distinguishes between three different levels of patients’ copayments within the prescriptions and the results show that the greater the level of insurance that the patient has (and therefore the lower the patient’s copayment), the lower the proportion of generic prescriptions made by physicians. It seems that the low level of copayment has delayed the penetration of generics into the Spanish market. Additionally, the estimation of the demand model suggests that the substitution rules and promotional efforts associated with the reference pricing system have increased generic market share, and that being among the first generic entrants has an additional positive effect.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152089</guid>
<dc:date>2011-05-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>¿Afecta la sobreeducación de los padres al rendimiento académico de sus hijos?</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152088</link>
<description>¿Afecta la sobreeducación de los padres al rendimiento académico de sus hijos?
Nieto, Sandra; Ramos Lobo, Raul
Distintos trabajos han analizado la relevancia del desajuste educativo y de sus consecuencias sobre los trabajadores que la padecen. Dicho análisis es especialmente importante en el caso de España, ya que presenta uno de los porcentajes de sobreeducación más elevado de los países de la OCDE. Un aspecto que, sin embargo, no ha sido estudiado hasta el momento y que tiene un claro interés en el contexto de la economía de la educación es el posible efecto intergeneracional del desajuste educativo. El objetivo del trabajo consiste en analizar si el desajuste educativo de los padres genera algún efecto desincentivador sobre la educación de sus hijos. En concreto, se analiza si el desajuste educativo de los padres afecta a los resultados educativos de los hijos. A partir de los microdatos de la encuesta PISA para España referidos al año 2009. Dicha encuesta facilita información detallada sobre la formación de los alumnos de 15 años en las materias de matemáticas, ciencia y lengua, sus características personales y la de su entorno escolar y familiar lo que la hace idónea para llevar a cabo el estudio planteado. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los estudiantes con progenitores sobreeducados tienen una penalización en su rendimiento académico en las tres materias analizadas, siendo ésta más intensa para los estudiantes con peores resultados educativos.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152088</guid>
<dc:date>2011-05-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152087</link>
<description>Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R
Pitt, David; Guillén, Montserrat; Bolancé Losilla, Catalina; Econometric models
This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152087</guid>
<dc:date>2011-06-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>How much risk is mitigated by LTC Insurance? A case study of the public system in Spain</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152086</link>
<description>How much risk is mitigated by LTC Insurance? A case study of the public system in Spain
Guillén, Montserrat; Comas-Herrera, Adelina
We present a methodology that allows to calculate the impact of a given Long-Term Care (LTC) insurance protection system on the risk of incurring extremely large individual lifetime costs. Our proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study. According to our risk measure, the current Spanish public LTC system mitigates individual risk by more than 30% compared to the situation where no public protection were available. We show that our method can be used to compare risk reduction of alternative LTC insurance plans.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152086</guid>
<dc:date>2011-06-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Loss risk through fraud in car insurance</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152085</link>
<description>Loss risk through fraud in car insurance
Ayuso, Mercedes; Guillén, Montserrat; Bolancé Losilla, Catalina
Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jun 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/152085</guid>
<dc:date>2011-06-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>An empirical analysis of a merger between a network and low-cost airlines</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/151831</link>
<description>An empirical analysis of a merger between a network and low-cost airlines
Fageda, Xavier, 1975-; Perdiguero, Jordi
We use a difference-in-difference estimator to examine the effects of a merger involving three airlines. The novelty lies in the examination of this operation in two distinct scenarios: (1) on routes where two low-cost carriers and (2) on routes where a network and one of the low-cost airlines had previously been competing. We report a reduction in frequencies but no substantial effect on prices in the first scenario, while in the second we report an increase in prices but no substantial effect on frequencies. These results may be attributed to the differences in passenger types flying on these routes.
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/151831</guid>
<dc:date>2011-05-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
<item>
<title>Why do educated mothers matter? A model of parental help</title>
<link>http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/97352</link>
<description>Why do educated mothers matter? A model of parental help
Canova, Luciano; Vaglio, Alessandro
The paper investigates the role of mothers in affecting childrens' performance at school. It develops a theoretical model in which household is treated as an individual, whose utility depends on the performance at school of the student and on consumption. The model focuses on the possibilities through which mother’s help may affect pupil's performance in terms of time devoted to supervision and spillover effects. Empirical evidence, using Italian PISA 2006, shows that highly educated mothers have a positive impact on students' score only when they are highly qualified in the job market.
</description>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Dec 2010 00:00:00 GMT</pubDate>
<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.recercat.cat:80/handle/2072/97352</guid>
<dc:date>2010-12-01T00:00:00Z</dc:date>
</item>
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