Abstract:
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The State of Hawaii has set a target to achieve a 100% Renewables by 2045. Due
to the State’s high electricity prices and dependence on imported oil, renewables
are seen as an environmental and economic solution to the problem. While the
state has seen substantial renewables growth in the last few years, a truly
transformative system is needed to push for a fully renewable future. This system
would be likely to include Demand Response (DR) capability, Distributed Energy
Resources and the like. This report models various different scenarios – different
rate schedules, energy storage and energy production technologies – to
determine which combination can deliver the most economic value.
Time-of-Use and Flat Rate Schedules form the basis of the analysis, along with
solar self-supply and solar export options for customers that would like rooftop
PV. The average Hawaiian Resident’s load and solar production profiles are
constructed – and along with the financial incentives of various schedules and
DR programs – the optimum solution was determined.
For Time-of-Use (TOU) Schedules, customers derived maximum economic value
from utilizing storage to arbitrage consumption across different time periods. By
shifting consumption, customers were able to achieve payback periods of under
two years, and significant bill savings. While adding solar panels to their roofs
also created a viable economic case – the TOU rate structure often conflicted with
solar production, leading to a less-than-optimal result.
For Flat Rate Schedules on the other hand, customers derived maximum
economic value from employing solar PV systems (without storage) and exporting
excess solar to the grid. Without the battery, the upfront costs of the system were
much lower than other options and coupled with a decent export credit rate –
the customers were able to attain payback periods under four years.
The report concludes that while these two options would be beneficial to
customers, there is significant room for further exploration. This could include
redesigning or refining the TOU Schedule and modeling various system size
combinations.
Ultimately, designing a 21st-century renewable system would require going
beyond optimizing for a single customer but also modeling the grid impacts of
choices different customers could make. Hence, this report serves as a stepping
stone to a larger exploration of the grid of the future. |