Abstract:
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Eliciting expectation and introducing probabilistic questions into surveys
have gained important interest. In this study, we focus on the reliability of students’
earnings expectations. To what extent is observed log earnings expectations affected
by random measurement error (noise)? A test-retest method is applied and reliability
is found to be fairly low; about 0.59 in 2015 and about 0.67 in 2016. Particularly
homogeneous samples exaggerate problems of measurement error. The analysis show
how these measures of reliability can be adjusted to become more suitable to other
studies, where different degrees of homogeneity are present.
JEL: C46; C83; I26
Keywords: Earnings expectations, reliability, measurement error. |