Abstract:
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This paper performs an analysis of tourism seasonality in Spain, typically from a
market-side perspective. Three exercises are performed; firstly, seasonality is
analysed through monthly concentration indexes and, in particular, the CV;
secondly, the role of markets is explored based on an additive decomposition
technique; thirdly, its main economic determinants are assessed through a
dynamic panel data model. The main results obtained can be summed up in:
first, seasonality in Spain has clearly worsened since 2008, coinciding with a
strong growth in overall demand; second, three markets generate two thirds of
global seasonality, with the pattern of the UK market of particular concern; third,
aggregate demand models suggest that prices, exchange rates and especially
income levels are significant explanatory factors.
Keywords: seasonality; markets; dynamic panel data models; Spanish tourism |