Title:
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The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study
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Author:
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Alemany Leira, Ramon; Alcañiz, Manuela; Guillén, Montserrat
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Other authors:
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Universitat de Barcelona |
Abstract:
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In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed. |
Subject(s):
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-Anàlisi d'error (Matemàtica) -Previsió dels negocis -Enquestes -Estadística matemàtica -Error analysis (Mathematics) -Business forecasting -Surveys -Mathematical statistics |
Rights:
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(c) Springer Verlag, 2012
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Document type:
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Article Article - Accepted version |
Published by:
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Springer Verlag
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