Bayesian trend analysis for daily rainfall series of Barcelona

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Title:	Bayesian trend analysis for daily rainfall series of Barcelona
Author:	Ortego Martínez, María Isabel; Gibergans Bàguena, José; Tolosana Delgado, Raimon; Egozcue Rubí, Juan José; Llasat Botija, Maria Carmen
Other authors:	Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Matemàtica Aplicada III; Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. NRG - Riscos Naturals i Geoestadística
Abstract:	A Point-Over-Threshold approach using a reparameterization of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) has been used to assess changes in the daily rainfall Barcelona series (1854–2006). A Bayesian approach, considering the suitable scale and physical features of the phenomenon, has been used to look for these alterations. Two different models have been assessed: existence of abrupt changes in the new GPD parameters due to modifications of the observatory locations and trends in these GPD parameters, pointing to a climate change scenario.
Subject(s):	-Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències -Bayesian statistical decision theory -Rain and rainfall--Measurement -Probability and statistics -Hydrology -Hidrologia -Precipitacions (Meteorologia) -- Mesurament -- Espanya -Probabilitats -Decisió, Teoria de la
Rights:	Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Spain http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
Document type:	Article - Published version Article
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